Will Miley Cyrus's "Flowers" win the Grammy Award for Record of the Year at the 2024 ceremony as predicted by Rolling Stone? This market resolves as "Yes" if "Flowers" is awarded for the quality of the recording and the production, and as "No" if another recording receives the award. Additional information can be found in Rolling Stone's predictions <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-lists/2024-grammy-award-predictions-nominations-1234863781/album-of-the-year-9-1234864044/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>.

marketId

Advisory committee motion 0xf4a2...bd71

This prediction market revolves around the 2023 League of Legends World Championship. The League of Legends World Championship has been one of the biggest yearly E-sports tournaments each year for over 10 years. This year’s tournament has revolved largely around one narrative: Will any other region be able to stand up to China’s LPL? After a grueling swiss stage and quarter finals, the remaining teams for the semi finals consisted of 3 Chinese LPL teams and 1 Korean LCK team. The semi finals concluded and set the stage for a legendary clash in the finals, LPL’s WeiboGaming vs Korea’s SKT T1. Who will win the final match and earn the title of 2023 League of Legends World Champions?&nbsp; This market will close on November 19th at 09:30 (UTC). This means that trading will be open into the start of the first, possibly second, game in the series. You can find all relevant information like standings, scheduling, updates, replays, and watch the games themselves at <a href="https://www.lolesports.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.lolesports.com</a>.

Advisory committee motion 0xd3af...ae51

This scalar market centers around the ongoing <a href="https://polkadot.polkassembly.io/referenda/213" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Referendum 213</a> in Polkadot’s OpenGov, which is set to decide if KryptosChain will be approved for 6 months of funding. As the starting point for this scalar market, the current approval rating at deployment will be used. Participants will predict the final approval percentage, ranging from 0% to 100%, by the end of the voting period. Outcome Condition and Resolution Source: The scalar market will resolve in line with the final approval percentage for <a href="https://polkadot.polkassembly.io/referenda/213" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Referendum 213</a> post-resolution date. Market Closure: This market is set to close and resolve following the official conclusion of the referenda voting period, which is slated for November 21, 2023. This market will be reported as soon as the final results are established in Polkadot OpenGov.

Advisory committee motion 0xd829...4fd5

At the time of writing (25th October 2023), the price of SOL is at $33.15. How the market has performed in the last hour, 4 hours, day, week, month, year and overall can be found <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/price/solana/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>. This market resolves to “Yes” if SOL is above $30 at the exact time of the close of this market, according to CoinDesk. The value will be rounded to decimal places and $30.00 exactly will resolve to “No”. The market resolves to “No” otherwise.

Advisory committee motion 0x5eee...a83d

This market predicts if the market cap of Polkadot (DOT) will be bigger than the market cap of Chainlink (LINK) at the end of November 2023. Resolution Criteria: The market will resolve according to the price on <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">coingecko.com</a> at 30 November 2023 00:00 UTC, If the market cap of Polkadot is biger than Chainlink (LINK) at this time, the outcome will be "Yes". Otherwise, the outcome will be "No". The market will end trading on 23 November 2023 , 00:00 UTC, followed by a grace period of 6 days.

rejectReason

Advisory committee motion #52

Republicans in the US House of Representatives have chosen Minnesota congressman Tom Emmer as their candidate for Speaker of the House, aiming to resolve the month-long congressional deadlock. Emmer emerged as the Speaker designate after multiple rounds of voting, following the withdrawal of support for Ohio congressman Jim Jordan's candidacy. The decision was made during a closed-door meeting of House Republicans in Washington. This market resolves to "Yes" if before the close of the Market, the Financial Times report that Tom Emmer is the Speaker of the House (this does not include if by some mechanism he drops out but becomes the Interim Speaker before that date). It resolves to "No" otherwise.

Advisory committee motion #51

Introduction: This prediction market aims to forecast whether formal peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas will commence by January 01, 2024. The ongoing conflict between the two parties has been a longstanding issue, and this market seeks to gauge the likelihood of diplomatic talks taking place within the specified timeframe. Resolution Criteria: The market will be resolved as "Yes" if formal peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas officially begin on before January 01, 2024. Otherwise, it will be resolved as "No" if no formal peace negotiations have commenced by the specified date. The outcome of this prediction market will be determined based on credible news sources or an official announcement.

Advisory committee motion #50

To meet the condition, DOT need to stay in 4 to 5 USD range during the whole period of October 2023

Advisory committee motion #49

GPT-4 is a language model built by OpenAI. Currently, the public versions only support text input. The incorporation of image inputs would be a significant evolution for the model, allowing it to generate responses based not only on text but also on visual data. This could enable a wide range of new applications in data analysis, journalism and cultural critique. The market's goal is to predict whether public access to image inputs in GPT-4 will be available before the end of Q3 (UTC). The resolution of the market be based on public access reported by credible news sources. In the absence of such confirmations, the market will resolve to "No".

Advisory committee motion #48

This prediction market seeks to evaluate two key aspects of the KILT DIP (Decentralized Identity Provider) infrastructure development. The first is to establish whether the project will secure funding from the Polkadot Treasury or if it will be self-funded. The second is to determine if the work detailed in a specific GitHub Pull Request (PR) or a comparable PR associated with the development will be completed and subsequently made open-source by the start of Q1 2024 (00:00 UTC on January 1, 2024). The resolution of this market will hinge on the following criteria: The funding source, either the Polkadot Treasury or self-funding, will be confirmed through official announcements or credible sources. The completion of the proposed work will be validated by the successful merge of the indicated GitHub PR or a similar one into the main branch by the stipulated deadline. The project will be recognized as open-source once the finalized DIP infrastructure codebase is made publicly available on the KILT GitHub repository. Relevant discussions and proposals can be found at the provided links.

Advisory committee motion #47

Introduction: Predict the Champions League showdown between FC Copenhagen and Manchester United on Wednesday, November 08th! Resolution Criteria: The resolution of this prediction market will be based on the official result of the FC Copenhagen vs. Manchester United match, as determined by the UEFA. The possible outcomes for this market are as follows: <ol><li>FC Copenhagen winning the match</li><li>Manchester Utd. winning the match</li><li>Draw</li></ol> The game will take place at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, with kickoff scheduled for 8:00 PM UTC. For the latest updates and the official result of the match, please refer to the source link provided <a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/match/2039141--copenhagen-vs-man-united/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>

Advisory committee motion 0x766b...d571

Introduction: Predict the Champions League showdown between AC Milan and PSG on Tuesday, November 07th! Resolution Criteria: The resolution of this prediction market will be based on the official result of the AC Milan vs. PSG match, as determined by the UEFA. The possible outcomes for this market are as follows: <ol><li>AC Milan winning the match</li><li>PSG winning the match</li><li>Draw</li></ol> The game will take place at the iconic Giuseppe-Meazza Stadium in Milan, with kickoff scheduled for 9:00 PM. For the latest updates and the official result of the match, please refer to the source link provided <a href="https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/match/2039134--milan-vs-paris/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>

Advisory committee motion 0x50ad...1abc

Sweden's potential accession to NATO has been a subject of considerable debate and negotiation. In recent years, the process of Sweden joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has seen various hurdles and developments. On 5 July 2022, an accession treaty was signed in Brussels, Belgium. However, the entry into force of this treaty is conditional on its ratification by all current NATO members. As of now, most member states have ratified Sweden's NATO membership, but a few, notably Turkey and Hungary, have expressed reservations. The resolution of this prediction market will be based on whether or not Sweden officially becomes a NATO member before the end of the year (EOY) 2023 (UTC). The outcome will be considered "Yes" if Sweden's accession to NATO is formally completed and they become a member state of the alliance before the specified deadline. Conversely, the outcome will be "No" if Sweden does not become a NATO member by the end of 2023. Formal completion refers to the completion of all necessary ratifications and procedures required by NATO for a country to officially join the alliance. Official announcements from NATO or the Swedish government will be used to determine the resolution.

Advisory committee motion 0xdaf9...3b23

Former President Donald Trump faces accusations of illegally attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. The charges include racketeering. For the purpose of this question his co-accused are as follows: <ol><li>Mark Meadows (former White House chief of staff);</li><li>Rudy Giuliani (Trump’s former personal lawyer);</li><li>John Eastman (represented Trump in a long-shot lawsuit to overturn voting results in four states);</li><li>Jeffrey Bossert Clark (former high-ranking Justice Department official);</li><li>Sidney Powell (played a leading role in promoting false fraud claims after the 2020 U.S. election);</li><li>Kenneth Chesebro (Trump campaign attorney);</li><li>Jenna Ellis (part of the Trump campaign's legal team);</li><li>David Shafer (former Georgia Republican Party chairman);</li><li>Michael Roman (worked for Trump’s 2020 campaign);</li><li>Trevian Kutti (publicist);</li><li>Harrison Floyd (Trump campaign aide); and</li><li>Stephen Lee (Illinois based former police officer).</li></ol> As of now, all these individuals are criminally charged. These charges range from conspiring to overturn the election, making false statements about the election, attempting to manipulate voting results, and pushing fraudulent claims about voting irregularities. Defenders argue some were only performing their duties or expressing political speech. This market resolves to “Yes” if, before the close date, any of the above plead guilty to racketeering according to credible sources. It resolves to “No” otherwise.

Advisory committee motion 0x8382...7a3d

Recent military coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger have raised concerns over West Africa's democratic stability.&nbsp;Out of at least 242 successful military coups that have occurred globally since 1950, Africa accounts for the largest number at 106. Though coups across Africa declined since 2000, there's been a recent surge in West Africa. Factors include governance issues and rising insecurity in the Sahel, a global terrorism hotspot. Responses include UK condemnations and ECOWAS sanctions, while the influence of French colonial legacy is being re-examined. This market resolves to “Yes” if, before the close of this market, Reuters, the BBC, Financial Times or New York Times report that there is a military coup in any of the following: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, or Togo. This market resolves solely based on the named resolution sources. Only one needs to call the event a coup for the market to resolve to “Yes”. It resolves to “No” otherwise. If one of these nations should change its name or split into two nations, this market also resolves to “Yes” if there is a military coup in that nation or nations.

Advisory committee motion 0xab53...1c34

New York Judge Arthur Engoron found Donald Trump and his sons liable for fraud, leading to potential significant impacts on Trump's financial empire. Stemming from a lawsuit by Attorney General Letitia James, the verdict may cause Trump to lose control over key New York properties. James seeks $250 million in damages, a business ban in New York, and a transaction halt for the Trump Organization.&nbsp; This market resolves to “Yes” if at the close of this market, Donald J Trump owns trump tower according to credible sources. It resolves to “No” otherwise.&nbsp;

Advisory committee motion 0xb55c...f287

A surprise attack by Hamas has left Israel in shock and critical of its government's failure to anticipate it. Hamas fired rockets into Israel, abducting over 100 Israelis, and inflicting significant casualties. Israel retaliated with airstrikes on Gaza and a potential ground assault. The attack is seen as politically damaging for Prime Minister Netanyahu, facing multiple challenges. This market resolves to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu is Prime Minister of Israel at the close of this market. It resolves to “No” otherwise.

Advisory committee motion 0x05fb...9076

Russia has threatened to revoke its membership of the Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. This would possibly result in nuclear tests from it or other nations before 2024. Likewise North Korea is not a member of said treaty. This market resolves to "Yes" if by the close of the market, credible sources report that there has been a Nuclear Test anywhere in the world. It resolves to "No" otherwise.

Advisory committee motion 0x84a4...8c0c

Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has been a prominent figure in the regulation of the financial markets. This prediction market allows participants to speculate on whether Gensler will continue to hold the position of chairman of the SEC until the end of 2024. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Gary Gensler is still the Chairman of the SEC at the close of this market, according to credible sources. It will resolve to “No” otherwise. If there is an official statement that he will be removed, he is considered to hold the position until he officially vacates it.

Advisory committee motion 0x4b87...8c1d

The bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, once serving 9 million users, has received multiple bids for a potential restart or sale. At least three bidders are in contention, and a decision is expected by mid-December, pending approval from the Delaware bankruptcy court. Investment banker Kevin Cofsky revealed this information during a court hearing, where it was emphasized that the customer list, which could be valuable to potential buyers, should remain confidential. This market resolves to "Yes" if by the close of the market, credible sources agree that a buyer for FTX has been approved by the Delaware bankruptcy court. It resolves to "No" otherwise.

Advisory committee motion 0x9eb5...a4a2

This market resolves to “Yes” if there is a detonation of a thermonuclear weapon anywhere in the world before the close of this market. Accidental, test and non-test detonations all count and no specific delivery mechanism is required. A conventional strike on a nuclear power station, dirty bombs or a failed detonation attempt would not count. In all other cases this market will resolve to “No”.&nbsp;

Advisory committee motion 0xbcdf...7d93

Former President Donald Trump faces numerous federal and state charges. These charges encompass a wide array, including false statements, obstruction of justice, and falsifying business records. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump spends at least one night in a U.S. government correctional facility for any reason before the closing date of this market, as verified by credible sources. This could be related to current charges, other charges, or reasons such as a breach of bail. A single night, or more, in a U.S. government correctional facility will result in this market resolving to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If, in the unlikely event, the only nights the former president spends in a U.S. government correctional facility are for non-punitive reasons (e.g., a holiday or publicity stunt), this market will resolve to "No".

Advisory committee motion 0x7287...d14f

In recent times, the Canary Islands have experienced heightened seismic and volcanic activities, causing concern for its residents. In June, the National Geographic Institute (IGN) reported 212 earthquakes on these islands. Notably, 20 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1.3 and 1.8 mbLg occurred off the west coast of Tenerife at depths of 30 to 46 kilometres. Although these seismic events have not resulted in damage, they have raised questions about the islands' volcanic future, given the 2021 eruption in La Palma and earlier events. Despite seismic activities, the IGN assures that the recent tremors don't indicate a change in Tenerife's volcanic state. Nonetheless, the Canary Islands are enhancing their volcanic monitoring, focusing on improving surveillance networks, educating the public, and ensuring timely measures. Residents are urged to rely on official sources for information and guidance. This market resolves to “Yes” if there is a volcanic eruption on any of the seven main Canary Islands (Tenerife, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, La Palma, La Gomera, and El Hierro) at any point before the close of this market according to credible news sources. It resolves to “No” otherwise.

Advisory committee motion 0x06ba...8185

Russell Brand, English comedian and actor, faces sexual assault allegations from four women between 2006 and 2013, during his prominence on BBC Radio 2 and in Hollywood. The claims were jointly investigated by the Sunday Times and Channel 4's Dispatches. Brand denies the allegations, framing them as a media-driven campaign. This market resolves to “Yes” if any major news outlet publishes accusations of any sexual offence by Russell Brand against a fifth complainant before the close of this market. It resolves to “No” otherwise.

Advisory committee motion 0x0efe...798a

Rishi Sunak is the current leader of the UK Conservative party (and also the Prime Minister). This could change - He could lose the General Election and then there could be a leadership election; or separately he could just lose a leadership election. Non-UK bettors might be surprised that the General Election and Conservative Party leadership election are separate, but they are.&nbsp; This market resolves to “Yes” if, at the close of this market, Rishi Sunak is the leader of the Conservative Party at the close of this market. It resolves to “No” otherwise. Whether he is Prime Minister is not relevant.

Zeitgeist