This prediction market is about the annual global temperature as recorded by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The specific measure we're interested in is the Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI), which gives an estimate of the global temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius relative to a 1951-1980 base period. The highest No_Smoothing value on record is +1.01 degrees Celsius, achieved in both 2016 and 2020 (see <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>). Will 2023 surpass this record and become the warmest year to date according to LOTI? The market will be resolved to "Yes" if the No_Smoothing value for 2023 on NASA's GISS LOTI, available <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>, is at least +1.02 degrees Celsius by the end of March 2024. If the No_Smoothing value is less than +1.02 degrees Celsius, or if no data is available for 2023 by this deadline, the market will be resolved to "No." If NASA fails to publish the required data by the end of March 2024 (UTC), equivalent data from other sources will be used for resolution, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), or the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). If no comparable data surfaces until the end of March 2024 (UTC), the market resolves to “No.”

marketId

Advisory committee motion #37

Advisory committee motion 0xe8fd...a8b6

Advisory committee motion #41

The average includes all candidates that <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-a-serious-candidate-for-the-republican-nomination-and-whos-just-dreaming/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”</a> Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In June 2023, they debuted a new way of calculating our polling averages.You can read about their methodology <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>. This market resolves with “Yes” if at 00:00 on 1st January 2024 (UTC), <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">National : President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight</a> report that the likelihood that Trump wins the Republican nomination is above 45%. It resolves “No” otherwise. If 538 removes their poll average, then another credible source will be used.

Advisory committee motion #36

The United Nations (UN) has warned that Sudan is nearing a "full-scale civil war" that could destabilize the region. This follows an airstrike on a residential area, killing around two dozen civilians, marking the latest incident in the ongoing conflict between Sudan's rival generals. There have been reports of widespread looting, sexual violence, and potential crimes against humanity, especially in the Darfur region. The fighting has displaced nearly 3 million people internally and forced 700,000 to flee to neighbouring countries. Sudan's military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue to accuse each other of atrocities. Despite international efforts led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, and African leaders, there has been no breakthrough in ending the conflict. Egypt is set to host a regional summit on the Sudanese crisis. However, the outcomes of such engagements remain uncertain as previous ceasefires have been ignored. This market resolves with “Yes” if at any point before 00:00 on 1st October 2023 (UTC), The UN declares that there is a full scale civil war in Sudan. It resolves with "No" otherwise.

Advisory committee motion #35

Tensions in Kosovo have heightened due to a resurgence of Serb nationalism, sparked by a disputed election and disagreements between leadership in Pristina and Belgrade. Ethnic Albanians' recent electoral successes in majority-Serb regions, and moves by Pristina, such as attempting to remove Serbia-issued IDs, have escalated conflicts. Diplomatic talks between Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo's Albin Kurti have been fruitless. As hostilities increased, NATO peacekeepers intervened during violent protests, witnessing injuries on both sides. In response, NATO has dispatched reinforcements, including around 500 troops from Türkiye’s 65th mechanized infantry brigade. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of dialogue for peace. NATO's KFOR peacekeeping mission, in place since 1999, comprises over 4,200 troops from 27 allies, aiming to ensure safety and free movement in Kosovo. This market resolves with “Yes” if NATO or credible sources publish that the number of NATO troops stationed in Kosovo is 5000 or more at the end of 2023. It resolves “No” otherwise.

Advisory committee motion #34

Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, announced his bid for a non-consecutive second presidential term on November 15, 2021. Despite facing numerous controversies and legal challenges, including a felony indictment and being found liable for defamation, Trump has maintained his determination to run again in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign.</a> Wikipedia. Accessed on May 24, 2023.). This prediction market seeks to speculate on the outcome of this bid: will Donald Trump indeed be the Republican Party's candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election? This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump is officially nominated as the Republican Party's candidate for President of the United States at the 2024 Republican National Convention. The convention is the official event where the party formally nominates its presidential candidate, which typically occurs over the summer of the election year. If another candidate is chosen as the official Republican nominee at the convention, or if Donald Trump withdraws his candidacy prior to the convention, the market will resolve to NO. Official sources confirming the Republican Party's nominee, such as press releases from the Republican National Committee or mainstream media reports, will be used to determine the outcome.

Advisory committee motion #33

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has formally announced his candidacy for president in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/24/politics/ron-desantis-fec-filing-2024/index.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">CNN, May 24, 2023</a>). This announcement sets up a potential clash with former President Donald Trump in the Republican primary. Although DeSantis enters the race later than other contenders, his considerable campaign fund and party support are notable. However, the critical question is: will DeSantis become the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential race? This prediction market will resolve as YES if Ron DeSantis is officially declared as the Republican Party's candidate for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This needs to be confirmed through an official announcement by the Republican National Committee, or as reported by a reputable news outlet like CNN, FOX News, BBC, or others. If DeSantis withdraws his candidacy, is disqualified, or is not selected as the Republican nominee, the market will resolve as NO. If DeSantis decides to run as an independent or with a different political party, this would also lead to a NO resolution.

Advisory committee motion #32

Introducing the Rugby World Cup 2023 Prediction Market! Join us in experiencing the excitement of the most prestigious rugby tournament, set to take place in France from 8th September to 28th October 2023.&nbsp; You can predict who will be the winner of the 2023 Rugby World Cup until the beginning of the Knock-Out Phase. (September 14th, 2023) With teams from around the globe competing for the ultimate glory, this Prediction Market allows you to showcase your sports knowledge and make predictions who will be the ultimate winner. Stay updated with the latest fixtures and results through the official tournament website: https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/matches You can choose between 6 of the top teams expected to take home the trophy or choose ‘Other’ if you think that this tournament would be won by an unlisted team.&nbsp; Immerse yourself in the thrilling world of rugby and engage in the excitement as you forecast the winners and witness history unfold on the grand stage of the Rugby World Cup 2023 in France.

Advisory committee motion #31

The Damned Pirates Society (DPS) is a NFT community where they sail the seas with pirate NFTs for treasure and chances of special artefacts. 52 auctions will be held on Arbitrum Nova over the next year for special one of a kind pirates. The first auction went for 3,360,000 doubloons while the second auction ended with a 1,000,000 doubloon bid on it. This market allows participants to speculate on how many total doubloons will be spent in the first 10 completed auctions. This market will be resolved by adding up the total number of doubloons sent to The Damned Pirates Society: Deployer contract via the ‘Settle Current and Create New Auction’ method in the DPSAuctionHouse after the first 10 auctions have been settled. The first auction had a final bid of 3,360,000 doubloons: <a href="https://twitter.com/TheDPSproject/status/1677330320616570880" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/TheDPSproject/status/1677330320616570880</a> Link to current auction here: <a href="https://auction.damnedpiratessociety.io/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://auction.damnedpiratessociety.io/</a> Auction information: <a href="https://damnedpiratessociety.gitbook.io/the-damned-pirates-society/collections/generation-1-pirates/doubloon-auctions" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://damnedpiratessociety.gitbook.io/the-damned-pirates-society/collections/generation-1-pirates/doubloon-auctions</a> Doubloons: <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dps-doubloon" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dps-doubloon</a> DPSAuctionHouse: <a href="https://nova.arbiscan.io/address/0xc9b1ef7ff1bfbaf35f68c8650045f350e1ceee65" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://nova.arbiscan.io/address/0xc9b1ef7ff1bfbaf35f68c8650045f350e1ceee65</a>The Damned Pirates Society - Deployer contract: <a href="https://nova.arbiscan.io/token/0xefaeee334f0fd1712f9a8cc375f427d9cdd40d73?a=0x16f615a38528764eea9c6388a8c4e1fc8305cbb3" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://nova.arbiscan.io/token/0xefaeee334f0fd1712f9a8cc375f427d9cdd40d73?a=0x16f615a38528764eea9c6388a8c4e1fc8305cbb3</a>

Advisory committee motion #30

Advisory committee motion 0xfb11...b993

Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer is set to hit the big screens on July 21, 2023. The film, which portrays the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, known as the father of the atomic bomb, has generated significant anticipation and the audience's reaction will be closely watched. This market allows participants to speculate on the audience reception of the movie one month post its release. (<a href="https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/everything-we-know-about-christopher-nolans-oppenheimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Source</a>) This market will be resolved based on the Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score for Oppenheimer as displayed on July 28, 2023, 21:00 (UTC), a week after the film’s day of release. The score will be obtained directly from the Rotten Tomatoes website. If the Rotten Tomatoes website is unavailable or the score has been removed for any reason and cannot be acquired until August 1, 2023, 21:00 (UTC), the market will resolve according to the last known value of the audience score, or, failing that, to NO.

Advisory committee motion #29

Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" is set to hit the big screens on July 21, 2023. The film, which portrays the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, known as the father of the atomic bomb, has generated significant anticipation. How will this film be received by critics? This prediction market is designed to forecast the Rotten Tomatoes Critics Score for "Oppenheimer" upon its release. (<a href="https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/everything-we-know-about-christopher-nolans-oppenheimer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Source</a>) This market will be resolved based on the Rotten Tomatoes Critics Score for "Oppenheimer" as displayed on July 21, 2023, 21:00 (UTC), the film’s day of release. The score will be obtained directly from the Rotten Tomatoes website. If the Rotten Tomatoes website is unavailable or the score has been removed for any reason and cannot be acquired until July 25, 2023, 21:00 (UTC), the market will resolve to NO.

Advisory committee motion #28

In this market, participants will have the opportunity to speculate on the likelihood of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) receiving regulatory approval within the year 2023. This prediction market aims to gauge the collective sentiment and opinions of traders regarding the possibility of a BTC ETF being approved this year. The objective of this prediction market is to predict whether regulatory authorities will greenlight the launch of a Bitcoin ETF in 2023. The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF has been a topic of significant interest and speculation within the cryptocurrency community, as it could potentially provide institutional investors with a regulated and convenient way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This market will resolve “YES’ if an announcement of a BTC ETF being approved is made by pertinent regulatory agencies, reputable news outlets, or an official statement from ETF sponsors before the end of 2023 (UTC). This market will resolve ‘No’ otherwise.

Advisory committee motion #27

This is a market that aims to predict if the Zeitgeist ‘Court’ will be live by August 31st, 2023. The Zeitgeist ‘Court’ system is a decentralized dispute resolution system for prediction markets. It’s release will mark a major step forward for Zeitgeist and prediction markets as a whole. This ground breaking court system has been long expected and is nearing deployment now. This market will resolve ‘YES’ if <a href="https://github.com/zeitgeistpm/zeitgeist/pull/976" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://github.com/zeitgeistpm/zeitgeist/pull/976</a> is merged, and the pallet zrml_court added to the Zeitgeist mainnet runtime without call filters by August 31st. This market will resolve ‘NO’ otherwise.

Advisory committee motion #26

This is a prediction market that is trying to determine who may be the owner of the cocaine that was found in the White House on Sunday, July 2nd. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/cocaine-white-house-found-cubby-hole-where-visitors-leave-belongings-source-2023-07-05/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">As reported by Reuters</a>; according to a source the cocaine “was found in a cubby hole in a West Wing entry area where visitors place electronics and other belongings before going on tours”. The area that it was found in is highly trafficked by White House/political staff and tour guests alike, while also being adjacent to the West Wing, which is also near of the Biden family quarters and the location of the Oval office: ”Administration officials are able to offer tours of parts of the West Wing to friends and family members. People who are not members of staff must leave electronics and other belongings in the storage cubicles before taking a tour.” This market will resolve to an unambiguous confirmation by any or all of the WSJ, NYT, BBC and Reuters. If any or all of these sources confirm only one group, this market will resolve to that group. If no group, another group or multiple groups are confirmed then this market will resolve “Inconclusive or Other.”

Advisory committee motion #25

President Putin's staunch support for Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been highlighted by the failed coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries. Shoigu, blamed by Prigozhin for the slow Ukrainian invasion and resulting Russian casualties, managed to maintain his position amid criticism. A video released since the attempted coup featuring Shoigu seems to emphasize that he is still active and important, and he wouldn’t be removed due to external pressure. However, his long-term standing could be weakened due to the rebellion's effect on his image. Perhaps, Putin might opt to dismiss Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov instead. Once the shock of the rebellion subsides, Putin might consider replacing Shoigu, thus avoiding the perception of yielding to pressure. This market resolves to “Yes” if at 00:00 by or on 1st January 2024 (UTC), both Sergei Shogu and Valery Girasimov are in post as Defence Minister and Chief of Staff respectively. (It also resolves “Yes” if they temporarily leave their post but are back in post by the end of the year). It resolves according to the New York Times reporting of Russian Government sources - ie the New York Times must report that the Russian Government has said this (as opposed to a belief that one has been removed). It resolves “No” if one or both of them are not in post at the end of the year. If the names of the posts are changed, this market will resolve “No”.

Advisory committee motion #24

The current narrative is that Belarusian President Lukashenko intervened in the Wagner rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, convincing Putin to spare him and allow a peaceful resolution. Prigozhin and some of his mercenaries are now in Belarus, where they have the option to join Belarus's forces. Perhaps the Russian public questions Putin's security control following the mutiny. Meanwhile, Prigozhin's popularity has taken a hit within the Wagner ranks. His halt of the rebellion sparked outrage among his troops, leading to accusations of betrayal. Conspiracy theories about Prigozhin and Putin staging the coup are circulating but experts view the event as a humiliation for Putin and significantly damaged Prigozhin's reputation. Prigozhin’s final comment after the rebellion was an ambiguous message of satisfaction, fueling further speculation about his future plans. Despite these events, Putin has vowed to punish those responsible for the mutiny while Prigozhin remains in Belarus with an unclear future. This market resolves with “Yes” if at 00:00 on 1st January 2024 (GMT+3), Prigozhin is still being referred to by Reuters as the head of the Wagner mercenary group. It resolves “no” if he is not for any reason.

Advisory committee motion #23

In the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrencies, Binance.US has consistently been a major player, providing access to a wide variety of digital assets. However, recent legal challenges and regulatory pressures have raised questions about the platform's future operations. These prediction markets, ending at the end of June, aim to capture potential changes in Binance.US's offering in response to this shifting landscape. This market will resolve to YES if, by the end of June (UTC), Binance.US officially announces or implements a suspension (either temporary or permanent) of trading or a delisting for any of the top 10 cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SOL, MATIC, TRX, LTC) against USDT or USD. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.

rejectReason

Advisory committee motion #21

The <a href="https://kingsleague.pro/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Kings League</a>, officially named Kings League InfoJobs for sponsorship reasons, is a 7-a-side soccer league based in Barcelona, Spain, created by former soccer player Gerard Piqué in 2022 in association with other personalities from Internet and streamers. The league contains rules that are not part of the international <a href="https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">FIFA</a> regulations, according to the organizers, with the aim of adding dynamism and entertainment to the matches, such as the tiebreaker by penalties, unlimited changes or the use of secret weapons. The Kings League follows an open and close format where each season is divided into two splits: the summer and winter splits. Both have their regular phase and their play-off phase. During the regular phase, the twelve teams play eleven games in a round-robin system in such a way that they meet each team only once. The first eight teams in the classification play the play-offs made up of four semifinals, two semifinals and one final. Each game lasts forty minutes and, additionally, three minutes of recess in the middle of the game. This prediction market is generated around the PIO FC vs Saiyans FC match of <a href="https://kingsleague.pro/partidos/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Matchday 11 – 07/16/2023</a>

Advisory committee motion #22

In order to increase the value of the token with each transaction decreasing the supply ZTG ZTG even incorporates a minimal consumption fee mechanism to reduce the number of tokens in circulation, increase its value, generate interest and curiosity from the Polkadot community, the crypto ecosystem and the real world. before January 1, 2024

Advisory committee motion #20

outcome

Advisory committee motion #19

Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Donald Trump, has been criminally indicted with any felony crime in the US.Resolves "No" if this does not happen before June 30th 2023, 11:59pm UTC.Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.

Advisory committee motion #17

This market "Yes" if Red Bull (Oracle Red Bull Racing) are the constructor that wins the most total points in the Australian Grand Prix according to <a href="https://www.formula1.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.formula1.com/</a>. It will resolve "No" otherwise. This is not necessarily the constructor of the car that comes in 1st, since 2nd and 3rd place add up to more than 1st.

Advisory committee motion #18

This is a prediction market that aims to find the value of the US dollar according to the ‘DXY’ US Dollar Currency Index at the end of Q2 2023 (UTC). This market will resolve according to information taken from <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/</a> This is a Scalar Market. If you believe the current prediction is too low you can LONG, and if you believe the current prediction is too high you can SHORT.