Question | 2023 Hottest Year on Record↗ |
Description | This prediction market is about the annual global temperature as recorded by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The specific measure we're interested in is the Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI), which gives an estimate of the global temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius relative to a 1951-1980 base period. The highest No_Smoothing value on record is +1.01 degrees Celsius, achieved in both 2016 and 2020 (see here). Will 2023 surpass this record and become the warmest year to date according to LOTI? The market will be resolved to "Yes" if the No_Smoothing value for 2023 on NASA's GISS LOTI, available here, is at least +1.02 degrees Celsius by the end of March 2024. If the No_Smoothing value is less than +1.02 degrees Celsius, or if no data is available for 2023 by this deadline, the market will be resolved to "No." If NASA fails to publish the required data by the end of March 2024 (UTC), equivalent data from other sources will be used for resolution, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), or the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). If no comparable data surfaces until the end of March 2024 (UTC), the market resolves to “No.” |
Tags | Science |