The average includes all candidates that <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-a-serious-candidate-for-the-republican-nomination-and-whos-just-dreaming/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”</a> Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In June 2023, they debuted a new way of calculating our polling averages.You can read about their methodology <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">here</a>. This market resolves with “Yes” if at 00:00 on 1st January 2024 (UTC), <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">National : President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight</a> report that the likelihood that Trump wins the Republican nomination is above 45%. It resolves “No” otherwise. If 538 removes their poll average, then another credible source will be used.

#36·Advisory committee motion #36