No context provided.
|Question||2024 Hottest Year on Record?↗|
This prediction market is focused on the annual global temperature as recorded by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The specific measure in question is the Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI), which gives an estimate of the global temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius relative to a 1951-1980 base period. The current highest No_Smoothing value on record is +1.01 degrees Celsius, reached in both 2016 and 2020. This market will determine if 2024 will surpass the highest No_Smoothing value recorded for 2023, thereby becoming the warmest year to date according to LOTI.
The market will be resolved as "Yes" if the No_Smoothing value for 2024 on NASA's GISS LOTI, available by the end of March 2025, is higher than the highest value recorded for the year 2023. If the No_Smoothing value for 2024 is less than or equal to 2023's highest value, or if no data is available for 2024 by this deadline, the market will be resolved as "No." If NASA fails to publish the required data by the end of March 2025 (UTC), equivalent data from other sources such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), or the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will be used for resolution. Should no comparable data become available by the end of March 2025 (UTC), the market resolves to “No.”
No comments here